I heard a great line this week on a Real Vision interview. Grant Williams said “getting better is getting less early.”
I am not sure if you know this, but I have correctly called every market downturn since I started trading. In 2007 and early 2008, when the truth about the problems on Wall Street were coming out, I not only knew, but I shorted continuously! Over and over again. I was burnt shorting so many times that the money I did make when the downturn finally came didn’t make up for the losses. Similarly, for this next market recession brewing among corporate and sovereign debt fueled by years of zero interest rates…well I called that sucker back at Dow 19000! Happily, I did not get in the way this time.
I don’t think it is actually hard to see where things are going. Uranium has been in a bear market for seven years…at some point it will turn higher. Stocks like CCJ will do well. Something like 10-15% of the listed companies are “zombie companies” that are not actually solvent, and only above water because of financing at low interest rates. These things are not hard to see coming, but the timing is what counts.
I was reading this book this weekend called Thinking in Bets. The author references these studies that show smart people are actually more susceptible to creating narratives that explain the world, and then getting lost in them…Lost and immune to objective facts. A lot of smart people are attracted to the market. They think their smarts will help them; I did.
Market wise, I have not traded since CRON. Still in that as it putters around, although the add was stopped out, the core position remains. I have noticed, when volatility is higher, being early matters less. So I am just watching and learning, not much to do.
My watchlist: Long: SMG, CCJ, AKG, LUV Short: TLT
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